In Arizona's 2024 Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake are locked in a tight contest, with recent polls showing Gallego holding a slim lead. This race is poised to be one of the most closely watched in the country, as it could determine the balance of power in the Senate.
Gallego, a Democratic congressman, has consistently maintained a lead over Lake, a former television news anchor and staunch Trump ally. A poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) in May showed Gallego with a 10-point advantage, leading Lake 46% to 36% . This lead is attributed to Gallego's strong support among Democrats and independents, while Lake struggles to consolidate Republican voters, particularly moderates.
NRSC memo on Arizona Senate race: The latest NRSC survey shows Kari Lake leading Ruben Gallego by one point, 47% to 46%, among likely voters —aligning with another recent poll on the race. Trump’s standing in Arizona could help down-ballot candidates like Lake. pic.twitter.com/dUsYCJ3Ekx
— Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (@yvonnewingett) June 20, 2024
Lake's polarizing political stance has been a double-edged sword. While she enjoys solid support from MAGA Republicans, she faces significant resistance from moderate Republicans and independents, who are critical to winning statewide elections in Arizona. This divide is exemplified by a segment of "McCain-style Republicans" who have shown a preference for Gallego over Lake, further complicating her path to victory.
Internal polling from both campaigns suggests a closer race, with Lake's team criticizing the methodology of some public polls. They argue that online opt-in surveys, like those used by NPI, are less accurate than traditional methods. Despite these claims, the overall trend shows Gallego maintaining a lead, albeit by varying margins depending on the poll.
The real reason why the race is so nasty is because Blake Masters pays people to believe in his delusions. Blake can’t accept he was the worst candidate due to his own choices, blames his failures on McConnell, cowardly ran and hid after November 2022, betrayed Kari Lake, waited… pic.twitter.com/jXILiBrW3b
— Abe Hamadeh War Room (@AbeWarRoom) June 20, 2024
In a hypothetical three-way race including incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who has yet to announce whether she will seek re-election, Gallego's lead narrows. Polls indicate that in such a scenario, Gallego would receive 34% of the vote, Lake 31%, and Sinema 23%, with 12% undecided. This dynamic reflects the potential for Sinema to siphon votes from both major party candidates, adding another layer of complexity to the race.
Lake has sought to bolster her campaign with high-profile endorsements from GOP figures and the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, aiming to unify the party behind her candidacy. However, her contentious relationship with the legacy of Senator John McCain and her refusal to concede her gubernatorial loss in 2022 continue to hinder her appeal to a broader electorate.
Meanwhile, Gallego has focused on mobilizing his base and appealing to independents, highlighting his legislative accomplishments and contrasting his policy positions with Lake's more extreme stances. His campaign emphasizes a message of unity and practical solutions, which has resonated with many Arizona voters tired of divisive politics (Yahoo).
As the primary election approaches, scheduled for July 30, both candidates are ramping up their efforts to secure their party's nomination and prepare for what promises to be a fiercely contested general election in November. With the balance of the Senate potentially at stake, the Arizona race will undoubtedly remain in the national spotlight.
As the recent Arizona Senate Audits have shown, Kari Lake actually won the election to Governor of Arizona over Katie Hobbs. It remains to be seen how Arizona handles the lame duck non-Governor Katie Hobbs. Lake is also likely to win the Republican nomination for USA Senate candidate.